The 2024 US Election: Key Expectations for Companies in the USA

In many ways, the 2024 US election was historic. National issues such as immigration, abortion and the US economy polarised the country as never before, alongside international flashpoints in Europe and the Middle East. Donald Trump was able to communicate these issues in the most convincing way and won the election. There has also been a shift in the majority in Congress in favour of the Republicans. This will fundamentally change the political landscape in the US. In this blog post, we want to provide employers with an overview of the possible consequences in terms of labour law and labour market policy in the US, with a focus on the US market.

During a second Trump term, many of the Biden-era labour regulations could be rolled back, such as the recently introduced overtime pay rules. Trump could replace them with less generous rules, which would reduce labour costs for employers. The classification of independent contractors could also be made easier, which would benefit companies with flexible work models.

During his first term, Trump already introduced restrictions on diversity training for US federal contractors. This may re-emerge. It could also have an impact on training to prevent discrimination.

The Biden administration has introduced new OSHA regulations such as the Heat Injury and Illness Prevention Plan (HIIPP) to protect workers from excessive heat in the workplace. Trump could repeal these bills or replace them with less stringent requirements. He could also overturn the controversial "walkaround" rule. This regulation has been a long-standing priority for organized labor, but it has faced strong opposition from the employer community. Depending on the outcome of legal challenges, a second Trump administration would likely repeal it if it withstands judicial review.

Trump is expected to appoint a new chair of the EEOC, with Andrea Lucas as a likely candidate. Under her leadership, there could be a more conservative interpretation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, particularly in relation to the protection of LGBTQ+ workers.

With President Trump returning to office, employers can expect stricter immigration controls. The most common enforcement methods are likely to include ICE audits and surprise company raids. While the Biden administration had eased these regulations, Trump is expected to revert to the tough enforcement measures from his first term. This will likely mean increased scrutiny of I-9 forms, with heavy penalties for errors or the employment of unauthorized workers.
Employers should review their I-9 documentation and establish regular internal verification processes where necessary. Using E-Verify to quickly confirm employees' work authorization is also recommended. Proactively preparing for audits and raids can help reduce potential legal and financial risks.

While much will change with the new administration, individual states are playing an increasingly influential role in shaping workplace conditions.
For example, while efforts to raise the federal minimum wage have stalled in Washington, states like Alaska and Missouri have recently passed initiatives to increase the minimum wage. This trend highlights how the American labor market is being shaped by varying state-level regulations. Unlike in Germany, where nationwide regulations provide consistency, the U.S. is unlikely to adopt a uniform approach due to its federal structure and the employer-friendly stance of the Trump administration.
A similar divide exists when it comes to regulating artificial intelligence (AI). So far, 17 states have passed their own AI laws, whereas in Germany and the EU, the EU AI Act has established ethical and data protection standards for AI use starting in 2024. In the U.S., however, such measures remain highly controversial and have only been enacted at the state level. This patchwork approach adds uncertainty and potential risks for employers dealing with AI.